Point spread betting is one of the most common ways to bet on sports, but terms like cover the spread can feel confusing at first. Getting to grips with the basics makes everything else much easier.
This blog post explains what cover the spread means, how bookmakers set point spreads, how to tell if a team has covered, and what a push is. It also looks at why odds move, how live betting changes spreads, and the common mistakes to avoid.
Read on to learn more.
What Does “Cover the Spread” Mean in Sports Betting?
In sports betting, the point spread is a number set by bookmakers to show how much one team is predicted to win or lose by. It keeps the market balanced by giving one side a head start.
To cover the spread means that, after applying the spread to the final score, a bet on that team settles as a winner. If backing the favourite, the team needs to win by more than the spread. If backing the underdog, the team can either win the match or lose by fewer points than the spread and still result in a winning bet.
For example, if a football team is a five-point favourite, it must win by at least six for favourite-backers to win. Bets on the underdog would pay out if the underdog loses by four or fewer, or wins outright.
Curious where those numbers come from? The next section looks at how bookmakers build a spread.
How Is a Point Spread Set by Bookmakers?
Bookmakers set a spread to encourage balanced betting on both teams. The closer they are to an even split, the easier it is to manage risk.
To build the number, they weigh up factors such as recent form, injuries, suspensions, home advantage, head-to-head records and playing styles, then feed those inputs into models and expert analysis. The figure that comes out is the opening line.
Once the market opens, the spread can change. If one side attracts most of the money, the line may move to encourage interest in the other side. Fresh information can also trigger adjustments, such as late team news, weather updates or tactical changes. Spreads may continue to shift right up to kick-off.
With the spread set, the next step is working out whether a result actually covers it.
Discover The Best Online Casinos
Browse our list of top-recommended casino sites, read reviews from real players & be the first to get access to the latest casino bonuses
How Do You Calculate If a Team Covers the Spread?
Checking whether a team has covered is straightforward. Take the final score and adjust it by the spread:
- For the favourite, subtract the spread from their points.
- For the underdog, add the spread to their points.
Compare the adjusted score to the opponent’s total. If the side you backed has the higher adjusted score, the bet covers. This follows the same favourite-underdog logic explained earlier, just applied to the final numbers.
Example: Calculating a Cover With a 7-Point Spread
Suppose Team A is the favourite at -7 and Team B is the underdog at +7.
Final score:
Team A: 28
Team B: 21
For a bet on Team A:
Adjust Team A’s score by the spread: 28 minus 7 equals 21. The adjusted score is Team A 21, Team B 21, so the bet is a push and the stake is returned.
For a bet on Team B:
Adjust Team B’s score by the spread: 21 plus 7 equals 28. The adjusted score is Team A 28, Team B 28. Again, this is a push.
That example sets up a natural next question: What exactly happens when a bet pushes?
What Happens When a Game Pushes the Spread?
A push occurs when the adjusted score lands exactly on the bookmaker’s spread. Neither side covers, so the bet usually settles as a void and the stake is refunded.
Pushes are most common with whole-number spreads such as +3 or -7. Many bookmakers use half points, like +3.5, to reduce the chance of a push. Rules can vary, so it is worth checking the terms for your specific market.
Now that the settlement rules are clear, it helps to understand the odds attached to the spread and how the bookmaker’s margin fits in.
How Do Odds and the Bookmaker’s Margin (Vig) Affect Spread Bets?
Odds show the potential return if a spread bet wins. In the UK, they are typically displayed as fractional (for example, 10/11) or decimal (1.91). Both formats describe the same thing: the payout relative to the stake.
The bookmaker’s margin, often called the vig or overround, is the built-in cost of placing a bet. Even when both sides of a spread are intended to be equally likely, the prices are tilted slightly in the bookmaker’s favour. That is why you might see both sides priced at 10/11 rather than even money. In decimal terms, 1.91 on each side reflects that margin.
Being aware of the vig helps put potential returns in context. Comparing prices across bookmakers can also show where the market is most competitive.
Lines do not stay still, though. They move as new information and money enter the market.
Why Do Point Spreads Move and How Do You Read Line Movement?
Point spreads often change between the opening line and kick-off. This movement, commonly called line movement, reflects how the market reacts to information and betting patterns.
If one side attracts much more money, the spread may shift to balance the book. Significant updates such as injuries, tactical switches or adverse weather can also move the number. Sometimes a single large stake from a respected bettor, often called sharp money, can nudge a line.
To read line movement, compare the opening spread with the latest number. A meaningful shift can hint at where money is going or how new information is being valued. It is not a guarantee of anything, but it is a useful piece of context.
Those shifts become even more rapid once the match starts.
How Does Live Betting Change Point Spreads?
Live or in-play betting happens while the match is underway. As the action unfolds, bookmakers adjust spreads and odds to reflect the current state of play.
A goal, a key injury, a penalty or a red card can move the spread within seconds. Markets are designed to react quickly, which means prices update frequently and sometimes disappear and reappear as the situation changes.
That pace can be exciting, but it makes measured decision-making more challenging. Keeping track of your spend and using pre-set limits can help you manage your betting.
What Are Common Mistakes When Betting the Spread?
Several pitfalls catch people out with spread betting, and most are avoidable with a bit of care.
Not checking team news is a frequent problem. Late withdrawals, tactical changes or weather can have a real impact on how a game plays out. Misreading the favourite-underdog dynamic is another issue, particularly with larger spreads where the favourite has more ground to cover.
It is also easy to overlook the effect of the bookmaker’s margin on potential returns. A quick price comparison can highlight where value might be better. In live markets, rushing into decisions without pausing to consider what just changed can lead to poorly judged bets.
Finally, having no personal budget or chasing previous outcomes can undermine good decision-making. Sticking to amounts you are comfortable losing helps keep betting manageable.
Ready to bring it all together? A short checklist can make pre-match decisions more consistent.
Practical Checklist for Placing a Point Spread Bet
Before placing a point spread bet, it helps to run through a few focused checks that keep everything clear and consistent:
1. Understand the Spread: Make sure it is clear which team is the favourite and which is the underdog, and how the spread applies to the final score.
2. Check the Odds: Look at the price on both sides of the spread and consider how the bookmaker’s margin affects your potential return. Comparing a couple of prices can be useful.
3. Review Team News: Scan for updates on line-ups, injuries, suspensions and weather that could influence the match.
4. Monitor Line Movement: Note any changes to the spread or odds since the market opened. Shifts can signal where money is going or reflect new information.
5. Set a Strict Budget: Decide on a spend limit that fits your circumstances and stick to it, regardless of outcomes.
6. Read the Bookmaker’s Terms: Check settlement rules for pushes and any specific market conditions before you confirm the bet.
If you choose to place any bets, do so within personal limits that feel comfortable. Take breaks, keep track of your spend, and treat betting as an occasional activity rather than something that takes up too much time.
If gambling starts to affect your well-being or finances, seek support early. Independent organisations such as GamCare and GambleAware offer free, confidential help for anyone who needs it.
